Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a ability afforded by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
