A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
